Could US tariffs impact Swiss real estate?
On April 2, 2025, the United States announced the introduction of new tariffs of up to 31% on several emblematic products of Swiss industry, such as machinery, watches and precision instruments. While these measures are aimed directly at the export sector, their repercussions could also be felt in other economic spheres, including, indirectly, the Swiss real estate market. The latter remains closely linked to interest rate trends, inflationary dynamics and, more broadly, the global economic situation.
Trade tensions have the effect of slowing global growth, disrupting supply chains and increasing economic uncertainty. These factors tend to slow investment, weaken global demand and, consequently, affect the Swiss economy. In such a context, a contraction in economic activity can also lead to a decline in real estate demand, particularly in the commercial and industrial segments.
Even if the immediate effect of customs duties on consumer prices in Switzerland remains moderate, several indirect mechanisms are worth considering: appreciation of the Swiss franc, a possible drop in energy prices, or a slowdown in global demand. These factors have a direct impact on inflation and, in turn, on the monetary policy decisions of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Any change in interest rates quickly has repercussions on the real estate market, whether in terms of financing costs, investor yield expectations or rents, particularly in the commercial sector where leases are often indexed. In other words, commercial instability on an international scale can have very real effects on the ground, through increased volatility in the Swiss real estate market.
In an economic environment marked by uncertainty, real estate players tend to adopt a more cautious stance, particularly when it comes to those segments that are most sensitive to economic cycles: retail space, logistics warehouses and development projects. Conversely, this period could strengthen the appeal of well-located residential properties, often perceived as safe havens in turbulent times.
While the US tariffs do not pose a direct threat to Swiss real estate, they are part of a tense geopolitical climate and unstable economic situation. For professionals in the sector, it is important to remain attentive to these weak signals, which are often underestimated, but which can, if they accumulate, profoundly alter market dynamics.
Sources
tdg.ch - Article
lacote.ch - Article
wuestpartner.com - Article
lacote.ch - Article
A cascading impact on the economy
Trade tensions have the effect of slowing global growth, disrupting supply chains and increasing economic uncertainty. These factors tend to slow investment, weaken global demand and, consequently, affect the Swiss economy. In such a context, a contraction in economic activity can also lead to a decline in real estate demand, particularly in the commercial and industrial segments.
Inflation, interest rates and rents: a delicate balance
Even if the immediate effect of customs duties on consumer prices in Switzerland remains moderate, several indirect mechanisms are worth considering: appreciation of the Swiss franc, a possible drop in energy prices, or a slowdown in global demand. These factors have a direct impact on inflation and, in turn, on the monetary policy decisions of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Any change in interest rates quickly has repercussions on the real estate market, whether in terms of financing costs, investor yield expectations or rents, particularly in the commercial sector where leases are often indexed. In other words, commercial instability on an international scale can have very real effects on the ground, through increased volatility in the Swiss real estate market.
A climate of uncertainty holding back investment
In an economic environment marked by uncertainty, real estate players tend to adopt a more cautious stance, particularly when it comes to those segments that are most sensitive to economic cycles: retail space, logistics warehouses and development projects. Conversely, this period could strengthen the appeal of well-located residential properties, often perceived as safe havens in turbulent times.
Conclusion: a weak signal to be taken seriously
While the US tariffs do not pose a direct threat to Swiss real estate, they are part of a tense geopolitical climate and unstable economic situation. For professionals in the sector, it is important to remain attentive to these weak signals, which are often underestimated, but which can, if they accumulate, profoundly alter market dynamics.
Sources
tdg.ch - Article
lacote.ch - Article
wuestpartner.com - Article
lacote.ch - Article